tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9140612503596105113.post1558646341132652705..comments2023-04-07T14:21:19.083+03:00Comments on Decisions and Info-Gaps: Fog of WarYakov Ben-Haimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10765902456064490854noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9140612503596105113.post-57242696665534124392011-12-01T12:01:03.668+02:002011-12-01T12:01:03.668+02:00I tend to see this as the fog of war in one's ...I tend to see this as the fog of war in one's mind. The need to understand is frustrated by the difficulty of the subject, with or without diseases which that produces, socially or (also) individually. The war is fought by all the independent axons wanting to join up and make good decisions, but fearing they will be wrong or bad.<br /><br />The state of uncertainty then helps reach that desired state of distinct clarity and pure, objective understanding, if only because all the nerves remain active as long as they haven't found their match yet to independently confirm what they know or have confirmed what they should know. So we should never not want that to be so, at least as long as untruth rules.Ron de Weijzehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05135626951792092605noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9140612503596105113.post-21225401228034275322011-11-29T22:10:58.293+02:002011-11-29T22:10:58.293+02:00Some comments on one of Emil's comments:
&quo...Some comments on one of Emil's comments:<br /><br />"3. Hitler's defeat in Russia may be ascribed in large part to the fact that the invasion started late in June, rather than earlier, as had been originally planned."<br /><br />I really doubt that Hitler ever had a chance, given not only the fanatical resistance of the Russians, but also the huge help in material they got from the USA. The Russian campaign lasted 4 years despite all that. And even if the Germans were more successful in the initial Summer-Fall 1941, I doubt they would be able to hold on to the vast lands they would have conquered.<br /><br />" The delay was caused by an unexpected anti-Nazi coup in Yugoslavia; by the Nazi campaign in Greece, rendered necessary by Mussolini's invasion, with no prior knowledge by Hitler, the unexpectedly effective resistance of the Greeks,"<br /><br />The Yugoslavs (Serbs mostly) also put a very strong resistance. The Greeks pushed the Italians back into Albania both in the initial Oct 1940 attack and in Mussolini's second attempt (Spring 41), but could not stop Hitler's armies in mainland Greece.<br /><br />Crete, the island where I was born, was the last to fall, it put out a very strong resistance, helped by Anglo-Australian forces and a Greek division, as well as the local population, who would have caused much more damage to the Nazis if Greece's Dictator in the late 30s, the same guy who said "no" to Mussolini, had not taken their guns from them.<br /><br />the Nazi invasion of Crete was innovative in the sense it was the first takeover of an island from Air forces only, but cost the Nazis thousands of elite troops (paratroopers) killed. Goering told Hitler he could do it in a day, but Hitler did not believe him. It actually took a week, which is often mentioned as a huge break for Stalin to be better prepared etc, but I doubt he used it, or it would have changed things much in Russia. In his memoirs, Churchill regretted not trying much harder to defend Crete, due to its strategic location in Eastern Mediterranean.<br /><br />"However, the Nazi defeat was also caused by massive strategic blunders and intelligence failures (criminal occupation policies that alienated the civilian population; false assessment of Soviet military capabilities; Hitler's personal military incompetence)."<br /><br />Hitler was not a professional modern general, but his successes in France and everywhere else except Britain must have given him a lot of confidence in his decision making. <br /><br />Similarly, the underestimation of the Russians could have been due to the very embarrassing Soviet Debacle of their invasion of Finland, as well as their previous 20th century disasters in the Russian-Japanese war and WW I.<br /><br /> However, Hitler's policies of defending every inch of land they had made war really very inflexible and predictable to his opponents who exploited it repeatedly, incl. in Stalingrad.Tassos Perakisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9140612503596105113.post-14414474867172547212011-11-29T21:49:12.031+02:002011-11-29T21:49:12.031+02:00Yakov Ben-Haim said...
Hi Tassos
Thanks ...Yakov Ben-Haim said...<br /><br /> Hi Tassos<br /><br /> Thanks for your comment. My apologies to all Greek readers. Alexander was indeed a great general."<br /><br />No need to apologize.. and after all, these days it is the Slavic Macedonians in the former Yugo Republic that claim Alexander as one of their own, (and recently, despite being a small and very porio nation, they erected a statue of Alexander on a horse that is 8 stories high... several times bigger than any Alex statue in Greece)<br /><br /> " I'm not sure that uncertainty is less today than in the past. "<br /><br />Actually, the more I think of it the more I believe it is much less than it was in the past. Not only do we have far superior information and surveillance, look at the weapons, even in WW II the bombs were 100% "dumb" bombs that fell all over the place. Today's smart bombs don't give their target a chance, literally, and ICBMs and other nuke weapons can be controlled to fall within fractions of a percentage of their targeted location. Other kinds of uncertainty still exist, but they are more the result of the game and its players making decisions rather than probabilities and weapon accuracy.Tassos Perakisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9140612503596105113.post-2153148988029154522011-11-29T18:56:27.115+02:002011-11-29T18:56:27.115+02:00Hi Emil,
Your 4th comment is particularly astute....Hi Emil,<br /><br />Your 4th comment is particularly astute. Yes indeed societies can be very adaptable. It is certainly true that there are many ways for a society to absorb or develop democratic institutions. I did not mean to ascribe blindly to western exceptionalism. However, we can see from many examples - including some that you mentioned - how each culture must adapt differently in adopting (and modifying) democratic institutions.Yakov Ben-Haimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10765902456064490854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9140612503596105113.post-6555160065275957862011-11-29T18:48:59.401+02:002011-11-29T18:48:59.401+02:00Hi Tassos
Thanks for your comment. My apologies t...Hi Tassos<br /><br />Thanks for your comment. My apologies to all Greek readers. Alexander was indeed a great general.<br /><br />I'm not sure that uncertainty is less today than in the past. For one thing, greater capabilities are a 2-way street. Also, greater inter-dependencies entail the possibility for greater vulnerability to surprise. The struggle against surprise is still very important, as the Afghan example shows.Yakov Ben-Haimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10765902456064490854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9140612503596105113.post-45779372741074248812011-11-29T18:44:40.036+02:002011-11-29T18:44:40.036+02:00Dear Anonymous (the first comment):
I don't t...Dear Anonymous (the first comment):<br /><br />I don't think that it follows that imposing democracy is always for ulterior motives. What the discussion does imply is that even with wonderful motives, one much give careful attention to the social and historical context of the receiving society. We seen this conclusion before, for instance in the essay "Can We Replay History?" at:<br />http://decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com/2011/11/can-we-replay-history.htmlYakov Ben-Haimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10765902456064490854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9140612503596105113.post-19307869500701843132011-11-29T18:29:21.630+02:002011-11-29T18:29:21.630+02:00Emil Simiu wrote:
1. Editorial note: Pharaoh is m...Emil Simiu wrote:<br /><br />1. Editorial note: Pharaoh is misstyped.<br />2. Tolstoy's comments on war in "War and Peace" and Victor Hugo's description in "Les Miserables" of the Waterloo battle, which was decided by heavy rain, may be mentioned in this context.<br />3. Hitler's defeat in Russia may be ascribed in large part to the fact that the invasion started late in June, rather than earlier, as had been originally planned. The delay was caused by an unexpected anti-Nazi coup in Yugoslavia; by the Nazi campaign in Greece, rendered necessary by Mussolini's invasion, with no prior knowledge by Hitler, the unexpectedly effective resistance of the Greeks, and the poor military performance of the Italians. Hitler's blitzkrieg plans in Russia were ruined by this delay and an early, unexpectedly harsh winter. However, the Nazi defeat was also caused by massive strategic blunders and intelligence failures (criminal occupation policies that alienated the civilian population; false assessment of Soviet military capabilities; Hitler's personal military incompetence).<br />4. The reflections on democracy in countries whose traditions are incompatible with democratic practices are incomplete: Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, India, Germany, Spain, Poland, Turkey, have been able to build more or less functional democracies owing to factors of a fundamental nature -- the existence of a middle class among them.<br />5. While the essay is well written, -- as usual Yakov has a way with words -- I believe it does not contribute much that is new or actionable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9140612503596105113.post-6866032879016746342011-11-29T16:32:21.205+02:002011-11-29T16:32:21.205+02:00I read through this article quickly, and wonder ho...I read through this article quickly, and wonder how it can contain references to Julius Ceasar and Hannibal (admittedly great generals both) and even Napoleon (despite his monumental blunder to invade Russia), but not the greatest general of all time, Alexander the Invincible (whom the Romans later called "Alex. the Great"), who was not only invincible, (frequently fighting against vastly larger armies) but also unstoppable, really. For example, when he had a hard time conquering Tyre in today's Lebanon, he just changed the Geography and made it from an island close to the shore, into a.. peninsula, by building a causeway from the shore to it!<br /><br />But it is correct that war, at least in the past, was a game with partial information and a ton of uncertainty. Today, maybe less so, when we can go to Google maps (and other, far more professional but not public tools) and see every detail in the opponent's territory from above, etc.Tassos Perakisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9140612503596105113.post-33519294252799824642011-11-29T16:12:24.264+02:002011-11-29T16:12:24.264+02:00Interesting essay. I liked the "you can't...Interesting essay. I liked the "you can't elect the public" section. Does it necessarily follow that imposing democracy is always for ulterior motives? These include fear of imaginary weaponry all the way to oil supplies. I guess retaliation is another such dynamic. These are uncertain times both politically and economically and is nothing new everywhere one looks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com